Innovative Design and Analysis Strategies in the Evaluation of the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign: Propensity Scores and Counterfactual Projection Weights in a National Probability Survey

The National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign was funded by the Congress in 1998 to reduce and prevent drug use among young people by addressing youth directly, as well as indirectly, by encouraging their parents and other adults to take actions known to affect youth drug use. The major intervention components include televis ion, radio, and other advertising, complemented by public relations efforts including community outreach and institutional partnerships. An evaluation of the Campaign is being conducted under contract to the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) by Westat and its subcontractor, the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania. Funding of the evaluation is provided by ONDCP from the appropriation for the Media Campaign itself. The primary tool for the evaluation is the National Survey of Parents and Youth (NSPY). This survey is collecting initial and followup data from nationally representative samples of youth between 9 and 18 years of age and parents of these youth. The principal goal of the evaluation is to assess the effectiveness of the Campaign in reducing drug use initiation and its precursors (e.g., attitudes, intentions) among youth, particularly with respect to marijuana. The model of Campaign influence integrates propositions from the Theory of Reasoned Action and Social Cognitive Theory.